Twas the week before Christmas, and all through the market,
Realtors were selling houses in the Twin Cities, some wearing parkas.

For the week ending December twelfth there was such a clatter,
Pending sales flattened out, unlike a step ladder.

542 for the week, which was 2.5 percent under last year,
When market volatility was in the stratosphere.

New listings were down to a more normal fashion,
With 1,028 added this week, a stable ration.

Santa may be bringing sellers some Christmas luck,
With the laws of supply and demand in flux.

“On Original Price, on Days on Market!” he calls,
But Housing Affordability makes sellers feel mighty tall.

With just one week left in the year 2009,
The Twin Town Market looks to end just fine.

Click Here, for the Full Market Report courtesy of MAAR.

Wishing you Merry Christmas and a prosperous and joyful New Year. 

A year after the financial collapse of 2008, the housing market is very different than it was before the foreclosure crisis.
Here are seven bits of wisdom from economists and financial planners for anyone contemplating a home purchase today:

• Old-fashioned basics are more important than ever. The safest way to purchase a home is to put down 20 percent on a fixed-rate, 30-year (or less) mortgage.
• Don’t become overconfident about income growth. Even though buyers in their 20s and 30s will likely see their incomes grow more quickly than previous generations, it is important to act sensibly when borrowing.
• Anyone contemplating adding children to the family should calculate whether they could live on one income because having both halves of a couple work may turn out to be impractical.
• Include a maintenance budget. Even new homes need upkeep and repairs.
• Buyers who can’t afford their dream home now should opt for a starter home where they can save money each month for what they really want.
• Consider a property that can be expanded and improved down the road when money is available.
• No two buyers are the same, but they should all feel confident with the loan they enter into, no matter the size of the mortgage.

Source: The New York Times, Ron Lieber (09/12/2009)

For questions about the tax credit take a look at www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com.

Click here to see video from the Today Show.

Here is a recap of the "Sins"-

1.  being "insulted" by a low offer

2.  waiting for a better offer

3.  hanging around during an open house/showing

4.  leaving the closets a mess (this is in the top three for sins)

5.  not making needed repairs

6.  not getting rid of stuff

7.  haggling over the price of extra items

Or so says local REALTOR® and our data-friend (is that a word?), Aaron Dickinson in a recent blog post.

With foreclosure inventory dropping like a stone and often subject to multiple-offer price wars, and short sales still requiring a substantial amount of time and effort to close, Dickinson argues that traditional sellers have a unique window of opportunity in the fall market to nab a buyer. And that’s especially true for first-time buyers who need a quick close to get in before the November 30th tax credit deadline.

From the post:

• The first time home buyer $8000 tax credit expires on November 30, 2009 and most transactions take 3-5 weeks to close after an offer is made.
• Buyers will have to have chosen and negotiated on a house by the end of October to have a reasonable assurance of closing prior to the expiration of the credit.
• Banks do not have great concern over deadlines when dealing with REOs, so they are not likely to consider November 30th a “make or break” date even though the buyer will.
• Buyers making offers on short sales risk missing the tax credit if the answer from the seller’s lender takes to long or isn’t acceptable.
• In the coming weeks Buyers will find that the only option they have available to them has been the one who has been ready and waiting for this moment: the Traditional Seller.

If you are a Traditional Seller and your house is currently listed, keep it listed through Halloween if you can.  In past years the market quickly quiets after school starts but this year appears to be very different.  If you’ve been considering taking an additional price reduction, take it as soon as you can so you are priced correctly when the buyers’ interest swings your way… this will likely be you last-best-hope for selling till March 2010.

As we noted in our post from last week (see "Neighborhoods Where Traditional Homes are in Shortest Supply"), this has already started, to a degree. Sales of traditional, non-lender-mediated homes are up below $150,000 where first-time buyers can afford.

Sounds like "go" time for sellers.

Thanks to Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors

I would also like to insert my prediction of what might take place prior to the tax credit expiring.  With many single family homes selling in multiple offers, many buyers are going to take a second look at townhouses/condos.  This segment of the market has suffered immensely as many buyers want and demand single family homes in what used to be a buyers market.  With shortage of affordable single family homes more buyers will be buying townhouses.  So by looking in my crystal ball, my prediction is that we will see a rise in pending sales of townhouses and condos!!!

Neighborhoods Where Traditional Homes Are In Shortest Supply

Last week we looked at which neighborhoods were seeing their inventory of available foreclosures and short sales dwindling. The general conclusion: lender-mediated properties are going fast and buyers have to be quick and aggressive to secure them.

This week we’re looking at the other side of the coin: homes listed by traditional sellers. In general, these properties are not selling quite as quickly than their cheaper lender-mediated cousins and are still facing challenging conditions. As of September 1 there was 10.1 months of traditional supply compared to 4.0 months of lender-mediated supply.

But there are some areas where traditional properties are moving relatively quickly. Let’s take a look at the Top 30 neighborhoods by Months Supply of Inventory. You’ll probably notice some patterns. Think urban and first-ring suburban, dudes:

Homes Listed by Traditional Sellers              Months Supply    Active Listings

1  303 - MPLS - Longfellow                               2.7                     55

2  744 - SP-Como                                              3.8                     51

3  361 - Crystal                                                 4.0                     62

4  304 - MPLS - Nokomis                                   4.3                     192

5  750 - SP-Mac/Groveland/River Road             4.4                    72

6  363 - Brooklyn Center                                   4.8                    73

7  378 - Richfield                                               4.9                    118

8  306 - MPLS - Northeast                                  5.1                    123

9  752 - SP-Highland Area                                   5.1                   82

10  308 - MPLS - Powderhorn                             5.7                   92

11  379 - Bloomington-East                                6.0                   93

12  362 - New Hope                                            6.1                   60

13  602 - South St. Paul                                      6.1                   67

14  360 - Robbinsdale                                         6.1                   72

15  746 - SP-St. Anthony/Midway                       6.2                  69

16  310 - MPLS - University                                 6.4                  42

17  309 - MPLS - Southwest                                6.4                  287

18  748 - SP-Town & Country                              6.5                  41

19  301 - MPLS - Camden                                     6.8                  150

20  742 - SP-Central                                             7.0                  70

21  738 - SP-Home Croft/W 7Th                           7.0                  30

22  768 - Fridley                                                   7.1                  85

23  770 - Hilltop/Columbia Heights                      7.2                  78

24  771 - Spring Lake Park                                   7.3                   22

25  766 - Moundsvw/New Brightn/St.Anthony   7.3                   150

26  391 - Saint Louis Park                                    7.4                   301

27  702 - Falcon Hghts/Lauderdale/Roseville      7.5                    159

28  716 - SP-Hillcrest/Hazel Park/Dayton’s Bluff 7.5                    191

29  720 - SP-Southeast St. Paul                          7.5                    39

30  714 - SP-Phalen                                             7.5                    113

There’s not a second- or third-ring suburb in the bunch. You’ll also notice that these neighborhoods tend not to contain too many expensive homes. The median prices in these neighborhoods tend to fall in the low-to-mid ranges that are affordable to a larger swath of home buyers. And when you think about perhaps the largest factor driving buyer demand right now, it makes a lot of sense: the first-time home buyer tax credit, dummy.

Let me show you what I mean:

I’d call that a pattern.

First-time home buyers are extremely active due to the tax credit and—unless mom and dad have chipped in a ridiculous amount of money to help—first-time home buyers don’t typically buy homes in the $500,000 and above price range.

What we’ve got is an extremely bottom-heavy market (insert inappropriate metaphor here) with robust activity in the price ranges typically populated by first-time buyers, and a declining market still searching for a bottom in the higher price ranges.

Takeaway: traditional home sellers in the mid-to-low price ranges have a serious window of opportunity for the next month to find a willing buyer, especially with foreclosure inventory becoming so scarce. When the tax credit expires in November, the landscape might look a little different.

Median Sales Price

Lender Mediated $125,000

Traditional Sellers $209,000

 

Takeaway #1: The single-family detached market segment is rapidly approaching a balanced equilibrium. There are currently 6.3 months of supply available in that segment compared to 8.0 and 11.7 months in the townhome and condominium segments, respectively. The lower price ranges of the single-family detached segment are actually now extreme seller’s markets, with only 2.3 months of supply available under $120,000, for example.

Takeaway #2: Sales continue to boom below $200,000 as first-time buyers move to take advantage of the final days of the federal tax credit. Expect sales to continue at a brisk pace for the next two months as the "last call before bar close" buyers take advantage of the final days of this substantial market incentive.

Click here to view the September Housing Supply Outlook.

Months Supply of Inventory by Property Type:

Thanks to The Skinny Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors and Jeff Allan

The August Monthly Skinny Video is live up online. This month’s edition is another quickfire update on trends in the Twin Cities housing market, this time narrated by our CEO, Mark Allen (no relation, seriously, for the last time).

There’s a lot of reasons for optimism, as some key market metrics are showing signs of rebound. However, there’s still more foreclosures than anyone’s comfortable with and the upper price brackets are unfortunately fairly quiet. The video explains.

Click here to view in a separate window, or just click on the embedded clip below

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